FR Muwanika, LK Atuhaire, B Ocaya and RE Isoto
Introduction: Temperature and rainfall are assumed to play an important role in the transmission of malaria. According to Zhou simultaneous analysis of the long-term time series of meteorological and parasitological data are critically needed to understand the effects of climate on malaria incidence. However, it would be more plausible to assess the effect of climate variation on the malaria incidence since increase or decrease in the number of malaria cases does not quantify the disease frequency.
Objective: This study therefore, seeks to examine the consequences of variation in climatic factors such as temperature and rainfall on the malaria incidence among the Ugandan population.
Methods: To account for variation and dynamics in monthly malaria incidence among the Ugandan population, data on environmental factors like minimum and maximum temperature, and rainfall were obtained from Uganda National Meteorological Authority (UNMA) while monthly malaria counts for the period (2006-2016) were obtained from Ministry of Health (MoH). Dynamically complete models were used to simultaneously investigate the impact of environmental factors on monthly malaria incidence in the population.
Findings: Findings revealed that the long-run impact of three months successive one percent increase in maximum temperature would result into an 8.1% reduction in monthly malaria incidence. Similarly, three months successive one percent increase in minimum temperature would increase monthly malaria incidence by about 16.7% in the long-run. The impact of rainfall was also significant in that successive one percent three months increase in rainfall would reduce malaria incidence by about 14% in the long-run.
Conclusion: Increasing maximum temperature is associated with a reduction in malaria incidence while increasing minimum temperature is associated with an increase in monthly malaria incidence. Lastly, increasing amount of rainfall is associated with a reduction in monthly malaria incidence.
Recommendations: In order to lower the incidence of malaria among the population, it’s imperative that malaria control and preventive interventions consider environmental modifications that lower minimum temperature and increase the amount of rainfall. These interventions include land use methods such as conversion of land from forests to settlements and agricultural activities, wetlands for settlements and other economic activities.